Uncovering Risks and Forecasting Performance of a Royalty Portfolio to Guide Investment Decisions

A large institutional investment firm engaged Shift Health to evaluate the products in a portfolio of pharma royalties it had an opportunity to acquire.

Shift Health performed a rapid scan of nine marketed products to uncover potential risks that might impact future royalty streams. The scan was followed by a deeper due diligence on two of the products for which high-risk events were identified that might impact future sales. Data on the products’ place in therapy and novel and generic competitor products were combined with insights gathered from expert KOL interviews to build interactive, event-driven financial models to forecast revenues for the two products.

The models were well received by the client and were vital in informing a $300M investment decision in the portfolio of products.